Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 21.431594 25.783660 30.588544 36.259072 42.739224 49.884369 58.328310
2025-06-15 15.492320 21.247871 28.251507 37.278624 48.473378 61.764013 78.587641
2025-06-22 11.397742 17.425875 25.361173 36.313011 50.749712 68.828578 92.841337
2025-06-29 9.374852 15.695296 24.568023 37.494937 55.354335 78.632193 110.661186
2025-07-06 6.995480 12.902610 21.771521 35.422595 55.178988 81.945977 120.032421
2025-07-13 5.995399 11.969394 21.435388 36.644232 59.449591 91.257090 137.649951
2025-07-20 5.146153 11.093472 21.013546 37.601433 63.293536 100.074857 154.915164
2025-07-27 4.523921 10.477345 20.887314 38.931500 67.691721 109.813993 173.821078
2025-08-03 3.943307 9.813741 20.567648 39.867554 71.480200 118.782497 191.942590
2025-08-10 3.252540 8.780689 19.445202 39.323294 72.849180 124.164389 205.014848
2025-08-17 2.805971 8.155539 18.962552 39.783855 75.795173 131.987027 221.912972
2025-08-24 2.291705 7.254795 17.820149 38.939728 76.488769 136.317045 233.681284
2025-08-31 1.749077 6.175701 16.236181 37.271337 75.928437 139.064325 243.850094
2025-09-07 1.520069 5.837204 16.143515 38.416844 80.340562 150.031813 267.317176
2025-09-14 1.186424 5.092724 15.032089 37.432057 80.872700 154.677442 281.017705
2025-09-21 1.039984 4.853909 15.023278 38.643073 85.429169 166.141862 305.952149
2025-09-28 0.756302 4.047712 13.503028 36.519935 83.615146 166.764974 313.382297
2025-10-05 0.667025 3.886295 13.560179 37.771592 88.255183 178.584283 339.488214
2025-10-12 0.579546 3.694430 13.501882 38.752173 92.414347 189.721202 364.817241
2025-10-19 0.515710 3.572198 13.610540 40.114527 97.393733 202.478571 393.241314
2025-10-26 0.448205 3.401375 13.550848 41.073168 101.608789 214.025959 419.968351
2025-11-02 0.354364 3.048365 12.886416 40.515789 102.689630 219.968737 437.338223
2025-11-09 0.298164 2.852378 12.657945 40.987455 105.909115 229.897430 461.821761